Money or principles - the WTO column

(tomorrow at Chinabiz)

Europe is eager to tap into the expected flood of tourists from China that can fill seats in airplanes, hotel rooms and swamp tourist attractions, like they do in most parts of Asia. The pressure on the European governments by the airline companies and tourist industry is huge, especially after Germany started last year to accept tour groups from China, although that was not in line with the so-called Schengen agreement.
In the Schengen agreement most European countries decided to lift their internal borders, but would need a common approach for its new borders. Thanks to Germany that policy has failed in the case of the Chinese tourists.
Although Europe was eager to legalize and expand the already existing visits of Chinese tourists, disguised as business people, it decided to add conditions to the negotiations with China. What sense do negotiations have if there is nothing to ask for?
Traditionally China would not take back illegal immigrants very easy, officially because it would be unable to establish their identity. One of the US presidents asked during a state visit former leader Deng Xiaoping to allow his citizens more freedom. “How many millions do you want?” Deng wanted to know. China does not miss them.
All participants agree that the chance of overstaying Chinese tourists would be rather limited. The illegal visitors tend to use other channels. But European countries saw the negotiations also a chance to put the position of other illegal Chinese migrants at the agenda.
Officially that is still the sticking point. China and most European countries have signed a few weeks ago an MOU, a Memorandum of Understanding, and Chinese tourist can get officially to Europe as soon as this little detail about returning illegal Chinese citizens is dealt with.

That is going to be fun.

Germany has already undermined the European arguments by accepting Chinese tourists last year and there is no sign China is really going to change its attitude, or might even be able to do so.
The Dutch government is volunteering as a guinea pig. At home has been unable to really improve the domestic economy and is now looking for other issues that might improve its popularity among the electorate. Large numbers of refugees without a legal status will be expelled in the months to come, including a fair number of Chinese.
In theory it is very easy for them to return to China, as long as they are willing to prove their identity. That now might not work out, since most of them are for different reasons not very eager to return and China is not going to accept them without a proof of their identity.

It is obvious that this issue will need a large scale face-saving operation on the European side, since they are the demanding party. I predict that Europe will give up, accept Chinese tourists without almost any conditions and illegal Chinese will not be expelled but forced into illegality. Even the Dutch government, when it has to choose between money and principles, will go for the Chinese tourists. Watch my words.

It could have been done differently. Just look at the USA, where Chinese tourists are not allowed and even academics and business people have a hard time in securing a visa. The US government goes for its principles, not for the money, even though it does mean that prestigious international conference have to move to Canada or Asia.


Fons Tuinstra